Food Club advice

[Wingsrising]

I don't know if there's anyone else interested in learning more about Food Club besides me. If there are, I was thinking that maybe it would be useful for people trying to learn (like me) if our resident Food Club experts would post their bets each day for a while (maybe a few weeks, dunno, however long they feel like) so the rest of us could learn from their greatness.

I don't know about anyone else but I find I understand some of the guides when I look at their examples but then can't think how to apply them to the actual races I'm confronted with.

I asked Cranberry if she'd be willing to post her bets (since she edited sirhatter's Food Club guide) and she says she's game. Any other Food Club experts who would be interested in throwing their $0.02 worth in?

Also, would anyone else be interested in reading this?

[adi_gallia]

I would be interested in this. I managed to win about 100NP a while back when getting Top Gamer, but that's it.

[Anza]

Just goes to show that great minds think alike, as I had been mulling over posting a thread like this asking for help for a day or so.

So yeah, I'd definitely read it and make good use of it!

[Fjorab_Teke]

Me too; I'd love to learn how to play this game, since if one gets good at it there seems good potential for profits without even stepping on anyone else's toes.

[Seerow]

I may post my bets, even if I haven't played FC in a long while It used to be one of my main sources of nps.
Uhh...generally just make bets on whatever pet is 2:1 if the rest are 4:1 or higher, or you're feeling lucky you can go lower. Make as many combos as you can with the ones you have available.

There's usually two of them I try on, or more if it's a good day. I do one bid with just one of each person then make a third with the two of them combined. Sometimes I'll also just bid on the guy with the best odds in each place and make one super bet as well. I almost never win it, but on the off chance I do that's some nice nps.

Here's my 4 separate bids for the round that will end on Feb. 1 (Thrusday).

Shipwreck: Franchisco Corvallio
Lagoon: Scurvy Dan the Blade
Treasure Island: Sir Edmund Ogletree
Hidden Cove: The Tailhook Kid
Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl

Lagoon: Scurvy Dan the Blade
Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl

Harpoon Harry's: Gooblah the Grarrl

Lagoon: Scurvy Dan the Blade

[DamionDarkheart]

I remember someone giving out vauge FC advice a long time ago, but I think it was pretty vauge and wasn't all that helpful for me.

If I knew how to play I'd certainly use that for making money as I've heard you can get quite a lot off of it.

[Cranberry]

Okay, first, so you know I'm not just making stuff up here (;)): since May '06, I've made a total of 1656 bets. I've bet 7,470,964 NP and won 12,236,024, for a total profit of 4,765,060. I also have a gold trophy.

Anyway, Sirhatter's method is pretty simple. (I would just link to his guide, but I can't find it anywhere online right now, so I'll just summarize.) He takes each pirate's odds and turns them into a percentage* -- that's the percentage of how likely that pirate supposedly is to win. Then he adds up all four pirates' percentages in each race. If the total is over 100, the race is bad; you can't actually trust that the 2:1 (or 50%) guy is the most likely to win, because when you add up everyone else's odds, they equal more than another 50% (I'm simplifying this a lot, but it's okay because it's not terribly important once you know the general method). Basically, you just want a total below 100, and the lower the better.

Let's look at today's races (round 2849):

Shipwreck:

Blackbeard - 11:1 - 9%
Fed - 4:1 - 25%
Fran - 2:1 - 50%
Sproggie - 3:1 - 33%

Total: 117. This race is crap. See, if we add up the numbers for everyone but the "most likely" 50% guy -- that is, 9, 25, and 33 -- we get 67%. Subtract that from 100 and you get 33% -- Fran's actual chance of winning. He doesn't have a 50% chance at all. Ignore this crappy race entirely.

Lagoon:

Roo - 13:1 - 7%
Dan - 2:1 - 50%
Squire - 11:1 - 9%
Peg Leg - 4:1 - 25%

Total: 91. This race is decent. Scurvy Dan has a 59% chance of winning.

Treasure:

Ned - 4:1 - 25%
Puffo - 9:1 - 11%
Ogletree - 2:1 - 50%
Orvinn - 11:1 - 9%

Total: 95. Similar to the race above. Ogletree has a 55% chance of winning.

Cove:

Crossblades - 13:1 - 7%
Lucky - 6:1 - 16%
Stripey - 4:1 - 25%
Tailhook - 2:1 - 50%

Total: 98. A bit worse than the two above. Tailhook has a 52% chance of winning.

Harpoon:

Fairfax - 13:1 - 7%
Gooblah - 2:1 - 50%
Bonnie Pip - 13:1 - 7%
Buck - 5:1 - 20%

Total: 84. The best race today by far. Gooblah has a 66% chance of winning.

Now, you could bet the max amount on each of the most likely guys alone, but you're not going to make a lot of money. The trick is to pair them -- make a bet with both Gooblah and Scurvy Dan, for example. And the other trick is to hedge your bets and hope someone with slightly worse odds wins. Pair Gooblah with Peg Leg, for example. Sirhatter hedges with anyone with 7:1 or better odds. I kind of pick and choose based on how lucky I feel that day. I mostly stick with 5:1 or better guys, though.

Always bet the max. You can make 10 bets per day, but you don't have to.

Here's what I'm doing today:

Bet 1: Harpoon's Gooblah alone.
Bet 2: Harpoon's Gooblah + Lagoon's Scurvy Dan.
Bet 3: Lagoon's Scurvy Dan alone.
Bet 4: Lagoon's Scurvy Dan + Harpoon's Buck Cutlass.
Bet 5: Lagoon's Peg Leg + Harpoon's Gooblah.
Bet 6: Harpoon's Gooblah + Treasure's Ogletree
Bet 7: Harpoon's Gooblah + Treasure's Ned

You should probably stop there. I don't feel good about the 52% race (Cove), so I'm not using it at all. I don't want to do much with the 55% one (Treasure) either, though, since it's not too great. And I'm already relying on Gooblah to come through a little more than I'd like (note that he's in several of my bets). But if you're feeling lucky, try this (and don't blame me if it doesn't work out!):

Bet 8: Lagoon's Dan + Treasure's Ogletree
Bet 9: Lagoon's Dan + Treasure's Ned
Bet 10: Treasure's Ogletree alone... or, if you're feeling (very mildly) crazy:

Bet 10: Harpoon's Gooblah + Lagoon's Dan + Treasure's Ogletree.

I played it pretty safe today just to show you how it works. Hopefully we'll get some better or crazier odds in the coming days (2:1, 13:1, 13:1, 13:1 is the most fun, and 2:1, 10:1, 13:1, 13:1 is great, too), so I can show you more of the ins and outs. But try these for today, and let's hope Food Club doesn't decide to screw us all over and discourage all of you on your first real betting day. Also, feel free to post any questions.

---

For future reference:

2:1 - 50%
3:1 - 33%
4:1 - 25%
5:1 - 20%
6:1 - 16%
7:1 - 14%
8:1 - 12%
9:1 - 11%
10:1 - 10%
11:1 - 9%
12:1 - 8%
13:1 - 7%

[zebru]

Thank you a lot Cranberry, that's a very clear explanation - I understood all of it, no blank spots at all. I'm excited to see how this plays out.

I only wish I had my old account back so I could bet more than measly 452 NeoPoints per bet.

[Seerow]

Okay so my method is all wrong XD
Ohh well, its worked fine for me so I'm just gonna stick with it. I don't feel like doing extra math.
I was three spots away from being on the high score table once

[Wingsrising]

Wow. That was impressive (and very useful, too.) Thanks!

I'll be interested to see what happens tomorrow. I know lots of people make NP off this, so surely I have to win eventually...

...I guess what I need to do is look at it like the Stock Market -- an exercise in patience and (in this case) probabilities.

[Fjorab_Teke]

Thanks a bunch Cranberry! Let's see how I do. I went "crazy" and voted for those top 3 all at once. I also took one stab at another random-ish one who paired up to give me a 1:8.

I can bet up to 4508 apiece.

[Cranberry]

Food Club goes through at 1pm NST now (although the betting gates still close from 1:45-2:15... dst issues). Anyway, I am so glad the bets I told everyone to make came through so I didn't end up looking like a fool on the first day. I expected things to go well, but every now and then (as poor Wingsrising can attest!), Food Club likes to throw you a curveball.



Hope you all did just as well! I'll come back later and talk about today's races, which rock.

[Huggles]

Hooray for people with mathematics and explantion skills superior to my own! Because, it appears that I'm doing it basically the same way, when I bother to bet. I think I don't pick as many singles as you. Here's what I picked and won before I read through yours.

Also, don't you get a higher score if you wait to collect your daily wins cumulatively instead of immediately after you win? I have a silver trophy, but I got lucky with a 19k win on a night few people were playing.

[Cranberry]

Right, yes. If you want a trophy, you can save up a total of seven day's winnings and then collect on that last day. I don't bother doing that anymore because I already have a gold (I like to give others a shot at it). Make sure you don't leave it any extra days -- if you leave it eight days, you will lose your winnings from day one.

And yeah, I play it safe with the singles... some people don't bother with singles at all, especially when the favorite has a really good chance of winning.

(Also, thanks for the compliments, but my math skills are actually pretty terrible. I have sirhatter to thank for teaching me how to do this!)

Okay, today's races (round 2850)!

I won't bother writing out all the pirates and odds today, because you guys know the method now -- but I'll post the totals, with how likely each race's favorite is to win.

Shipwreck -- Total: 84. Scurvy Dan has a 66% chance of winning.

Lagoon - Total: 87. Fed has a 63% chance of winning.

Treasure - Total: 71. A perfect race. Gooblah has a 79% chance of winning.

Cove - Total: 115. Ignore this race, because Fairfax only has a 35% chance of winning.

Harpoon - Total: 97. This one looked good at first with its two 13:1s, didn't it? But Buck only has a 53% chance of winning. It's still bettable, but aside from the horrid race directly above, it's the worst... so I'm not using it.

So, today we have another situation where we have three good races to make our matches from. We could obviously make many more bets than we're allowed per day with all the different combinations. So, we could play it safe, or we could be a little riskier, doing more bets with pairs and groups of three. I'm doing a little of both, but you don't have to copy me exactly.

There are two ways to use Gooblah, our pirate in the perfect race. With sirhatter's method, which we used yesterday, you'd just bet on him alone, and then pair him up with other likely 2:1s and hedge with a couple people with 5:1(ish) odds or better. With my friend XenaAndGabrielle's method (which he calls a "wheel method"), you would make a number of bets with Gooblah + some other pirate of 5:1 odds or better -- and the "worse" the race, the better, because you want a non-2:1 to win. This is the only time you'd make bets with those "bad" races. I like to use XAG's method if Gooblah's race is the only good one, because it gives you a chance of hitting some bigger money. For example, if all the races were like Cove up there, I'd make bets like Gooblah + the 2:1, Gooblah + the 3:1, and Gooblah + the 4:1, and hope the 3:1 or 4:1 won. You can make a couple bets like that today if you want, but it's best to use the "wheel method" when all the other races suck, in my opinion.

So, my bets today (again, playing it pretty safe):

Bet 1: Treasure's Gooblah alone.
Bet 2: Treasure's Gooblah + Shipwreck's Dan.
Bet 3: Treasure's Gooblah + Shipwreck's Ogletree.
Bet 4: Treasure's Gooblah + Lagoon's Fed.
Bet 5: Treasure's Gooblah + Lagoon's Squire.
Bet 6: Treasure's Gooblah + Shipwreck's Dan + Lagoon's Fed
Bet 7: Shipwreck's Dan alone.
Bet 8: Shipwreck's Dan + Lagoon's Fed
Bet 9: Lagoon's Fed alone.
Bet 10: Treasure's Fran alone. This bet in all likelihood will not win, but in these "perfect" races, or races with a 2:1/10:1 (or 11:1 or 12:1)/13:1/13:1, I always like to make one bet on the pirate with the next-best odds, just in case the favorite screws me over. If a guy at 10:1 wins, I'm not out any money at all, and if an 11/12/13:1 wins, I end up with a small profit. In 13/13/13 situations, I just look at the "pirates" page of Food Club and pick the one with the best win percentage.

So there you have it! I encourage you to play around with the three (or even four) good races and do different bets if you like. You can be riskier (don't do any bets on 2:1s all alone -- do only pairs and triples instead) or safer in this game depending on whether or not you like to gamble. Here are some bets I didn't make that you could try:

Shipwreck's Dan + Lagoon's Squire
Shipwreck's Ogletree + Lagoon's Fed
Treasure's Gooblah + Harpoon's Buck
Treasure's Gooblah + Harpoon's Tailhook
Shipwreck's Dan + Lagoon's Fed + Treasure's Gooblah + Harpoon's Buck (or any combination of these guys in pairs or triples)
Etc. As you can see, there are a lot of different things you could do with this many bettable races!

[Wingsrising]

Coolness. I had managed to identify which were the good races but was stuck about what to do next.

I made Shipwreck's Dan + Lagoon's Squire as my last bet. I'll see if I end up regretting that.